English is the most successful language in the history of the world. It is spoken on every continent, is learned as a second language by school children and is the vehicle of science, global business and popular culture. Many think it will spread without end. But Nicholas Ostler, a scholar of the rise and fall of language, makes a surprising prediction in his latest book： the days of English as the world's lingua-franca may be numbered. (中略)
English is expanding as a lingua-franca but not as a mother tongue. More than 1 billion people speak English worldwide but only 330m of them as a first language, and this population is not spreading. The future of English is in the hands of countries outside the core Anglophone group. Will they always learn English?
Mr Ostler suggests that two new factors - modern nationalism and technology - will check the spread of English. The pragmatism of the Achaemenids and Mughals is striking because no confident modern nation would today make a foreign language official. Several of Britain's ex-colonies once did so but only because English was a neutral language among competing native tongues. English has been rejected in other ex-colonies, such as Sri Lanka and Tanzania, where Anglophone elites gave way to Sinhala- and Swahili- speaking nationalists. In 1990 the Netherlands considered but rejected on nationalist grounds making English the sole language of university education.
English will fade as a lingua-franca, Mr Ostler argues, but not because some of other language will take place. No pretender is pan-regional enough, and only Africa's linguistic situation may be sufficiently fluid to have its future choices influenced by outsiders. Rather, English will have no successor because none will be needed. Technology, Mr Ostler believes, will fill the need.
This argument relies on huge advances in computer translation. Mr Ostler acknowleges that so far such software is a disappointment even over 50 years of intense research, and an explosion in power of computers. But half a century, though aeons in computer time, is an instant in the sweep of language history. Mr Ostler is surely right about the nationalist limits to the spread of English as a mother-tongue. If he is right about the technology too, future generations will come to see English as something like calligraphy or Latin： prestigious and traditional, but increasingly dispensable.
