Researchers are just beginning to explore how climate change affects aviation and planes’ ability to fly. Because there is so little data available and so many factors at play － aircraft design, airport size and location, the weight of passengers and cargo, to name just a few － it can be hard to attribute any one service disruption to global warming.
Depending on their locations, airports may experience the effects differently. High-altitude airports like Denver have thinner air by nature, so lift is even more affected by higher temperatures.
Airports like La Guardia in New York could also be affected, even though it is at sea level. La Guardia has a short runway relative to other major commercial airports, and on particular hot days that can be a problem: Planes might not have enough distance to achieve the speed and lift needed to get airborne.
“Typically in the hotter days of the summer, you may have to bump payload, which includes cargo and/or passengers,” said David Wilhelm, a senior dispatch manager at Southwest Airlines. Reducing weight allows a plane to take off with less lift.
La Guardia, because of its short runway, already forces many planes to reduce their weight, regardless of the weather. A Boeing 737, for example, has to cut its maximum payload by a thousand pounds for a successful departure. That restriction increases on hotter days.
Restrictions like these are determined by individual airports and airlines, and not by a standardize industry regulation.
Restrictions like these are determined by individual airports and airlines, and not by standardized industry regulation. American Airlines consults National Weather Service data and plugs it into a formula to calculate air density to determine if conditions at a given airport are suitable for takeoffs and landings.
In 2015, Radley Horton, a research scientist at Columbia University's Earth Institute, published a joint study with a Ph.D. student, Ethan Coffel, on the effect of extreme heat on aviation. The conclusion: “We can say with confidence that there will be more weight-restricted days, and larger weight restrictions,” he said.
Already, since the 1980s, airports have seen an increasing number of weight-restricted summer days, their research found. “One thing that's become abundantly clear,” Dr. Horton added, “is this is an underexplored area.”
The study examined conditions at four airports: La Guardia; Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport, which also has relatively shorter runways; Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport; and Denver International Airport. Some airports, like Denver, could counteract rising temperatures by extending their runways. That option is less workable for a location like La Guardia, however, as it is hemmed in by New York City on one side and the East River on the other.
As global temperatures continue to rise, some of the heaviest planes on the longest flights may eventually be unable to depart during the hottest part of summer days, Dr. Horton said. Like an ocean liner waiting for the right tide to leave port, airplanes may be grounded until the air is cool and dense enough for takeoff at full capacity.
He also pointed out that a no-fly window of even a few hours at a particular airport could have a ripple effect across airline operations while further squeezing airlines’ already tight profit margins.
Extreme heat on the ground also affects airport workers; loading and unloading luggage and servicing planes between flights could become more onerous. In Phoenix this week, American Airlines set up cooling stations － air-conditioned tents on the tarmac － for its employees.
Places like Phoenix, already known for summer heat, are measurably warming up. Data from the National Centers for Environmental Information show that every year since 1976 has been hotter than the city's historical average. Seven of the 10 hottest years on record there have been in the past decade.
With forecasts predicting record-breaking temperatures in Phoenix on Tuesday － and some flights being cancelled pre-emptively － many passengers stayed away from the airport entirety. Security lines had almost no wait. The terminals were so empty, one traveller was spotted riding his bike through the airport.
Allison Thomas, a 28-year-old college student, said she had endured three flights cancellations as she tried to return home to Seattle. “I'm so tired!” she said, but added that she felt lucky that she had family in town. “Other people had to go to hotels.”
In 2015, Radley Horton, a research scientist at Columbia University's Earth Institute, published a joint study with a Ph.D. student, Ethan Coffel, on the effect of extreme heat on aviation. The conclusion: “We can say with confidence that there will be more weight-restricted days, and larger weight restrictions,” he said.
Already, since the 1980s, airports have seen an increasing number of weight-restricted summer days, their research found. “One thing that's become abundantly clear,” Dr. Horton added, “is this is an underexplored area.”
The study examined conditions at four airports: La Guardia; Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport, which also has relatively shorter runways; Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport; and Denver International Airport. Some airports, like Denver, could counteract rising temperatures by extending their runways. That option is less workable for a location like La Guardia, however, as it is hemmed in by New York City on one side and the East River on the other.
As global temperatures continue to rise, some of the heaviest planes on the longest flights may eventually be unable to depart during the hottest part of summer days, Dr. Horton said. Like an ocean liner waiting for the right tide to leave port, airplanes may be grounded until the air is cool and dense enough for takeoff at full capacity.
He also pointed out that a no-fly window of even a few hours at a particular airport could have a ripple effect across airline operations while further squeezing airlines’ already tight profit margins.
Extreme heat on the ground also affects airport workers; loading and unloading luggage and servicing planes between flights could become more onerous. In Phoenix this week, American Airlines set up cooling stations － air-conditioned tents on the tarmac － for its employees.
Places like Phoenix, already known for summer heat, are measurably warming up. Data from the National Centers for Environmental Information show that every year since 1976 has been hotter than the city's historical average. Seven of the 10 hottest years on record there have been in the past decade.
With forecasts predicting record-breaking temperatures in Phoenix on Tuesday － and some flights being cancelled pre-emptively － many passengers stayed away from the airport entirety. Security lines had almost no wait. The terminals were so empty, one traveller was spotted riding his bike through the airport.
Allison Thomas, a 28-year-old college student, said she had endured three flights cancellations as she tried to return home to Seattle. “I'm so tired!” she said, but added that she felt lucky that she had family in town. “Other people had to go to hotels.”
After her third cancellation, Ms. Thomas gave up. She decided to drive to San Diego to try to catch a flight there － despite the risk that places might not take off there, either.
